Inflation for the month of November 2023 is expected to record a sharp decline.
This is due to the favourable base-drift effect.
According to GCB Capital, it expects the disinflation process to continue ahead of the release of Ghana’s November 2023 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, December 13, 2023.
It said both headline and core inflation have declined sharply this far in 2023.
However, headline inflation is still elevated, necessitating keeping a continuously tight monetary policy stance to anchor the disinflation process.
“With a broad decline in food and non-food inflation firmly in motion and the cost-side and demand-side pressures receding through the second half of 2023, we expect a sharp decline in headline inflation below the 30% mark”, it explained.
It continued that headline inflation could print near 26%, restoring positive real returns on T-bills and quickening the anticipated correction in nominal yields in 2024, all things being equal.
The year-on-year inflation for the month of October 2023 fell to 35.2% from the 38.1% recorded in September 2023.
Data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) showed that the decrease in the general inflation rate was attributed to the marginal drop in food inflation.
Food inflation in the period was 44.8%, while non-food inflation was 27.7%
In addition, inflation for locally produced items was 34.4% while imported items stood at 34.4% from 37.4% last month.
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