Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled, and Gaza risks sliding back into war.
This week an Israeli air strike killed the son of Hamas’s leader and chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, and Palestinian sources confirmed to the BBC that the two sides had reached a deadlock in negotiations.
Israeli media reports suggest Israel is preparing to resume fighting in the Gaza Strip because of the impasse and Hamas’s refusal to give up its weapons.
“We understood, everyone understood that Hamas would not disarm, and they have followed through on their intentions,” Michael Eisenberg, an adviser to the Israeli prime minister, told the BBC, describing Hamas as “an unrepentant terrorist group”.
“Nobody in Israel wants to go back to war,” he said, but added “all options are on the table right now.”
Citing unnamed security sources, Israel’s Channel 12 News has reported that Washington may give Israel the “green light” to resume “operations”. One of the main options it says Israel is considering is to expand the so-called “Yellow Line” marking some 60% of Gaza that has remained under full Israeli military control during the ceasefire. Locals say this is already happening.
Israel insists that Hamas’s approach to disarmament is in breach of the ceasefire deal which came into effect on 10 October. However, Hamas insists that Israel is violating the agreement by failing to meet its humanitarian commitments and continuing deadly attacks.
On Wednesday, a Hamas statement called on “the US administration and the guarantor states of the Sharm el-Sheikh [ceasefire] agreement” to “move immediately” to stop Israel’s “aggression against the innocent people in Gaza”.
This came after Israeli air strikes across the Palestinian territory killed at least six people – including a Hamas commander and Azzam al-Hayya, a son of Hamas’s top negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, who has been leading the indirect talks with Israel.
At least 846 people – including many women and children – have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire began, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Israel says that five of its soldiers have been killed in the same period.
In Gaza, the humanitarian situation remains dire, with most of its more than two million residents displaced. People are increasingly fearful that full-scale war could resume.
“Honestly, I say enough war. We hope that the war doesn’t resume. There are still attacks until now,” says Samah, a displaced mother in Gaza City. “We tell Hamas to consider handing over its weapons because there have been enough martyrs and there’s been enough of the siege. Let people live. We are exhausted.”
One of her neighbours, Abu Firas al-Jidi, accused Israel of “intransigence” and suggested that while the world was focused on the wars in Iran and Lebanon, there was “a serious risk that Gaza may slide back into fighting”.
Two Palestinian officials familiar with recent negotiations between Hamas leaders and the US-led Board of Peace in Cairo, confirmed that these had reached a deadlock.
They told the BBC that Israel was insisting on moving to the second phase of President Trump’s 20-point plan, which focuses on disarmament, before completing the obligations of the first phase.
The officials say the specific demands of Hamas include an end to Israeli shelling, incursions and other military operations in Gaza.
The armed group also wants the amount of aid to increase, the entry of temporary housing units and heavy lifting equipment to clear rubble and an increase in the number of Palestinian patients and travellers allowed to exit via Egypt’s Rafah Crossing. Israel says it restricts which goods are allowed in and out of Gaza for security reasons.
While Hamas continues to refer to the terms of the document that it signed with Israel in Sharm el-Sheikh in October, which focused on the first stage of the ceasefire, Israel has accepted Trump’s more comprehensive 20-point peace plan, which was endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution. Although Hamas has engaged with Trump’s plan, it has not formally accepted it in full.
“There is no phase one and phase two, that is an invention of Hamas,” says the Israeli advisor, Michael Eisenberg, who maintains that Israel is currently exceeding its aid commitments. “Hamas must disarm, demilitarise, and deradicalise. That’s the future of Gaza according to the 20-point plan.”
In March, the High Representative for Gaza on the Board of Peace, Nickolay Mladenov, laid out a detailed plan for Palestinian armed groups to decommission their weapons, starting with rockets, explosives and assault rifles. He linked compliance to Israeli military withdrawal and reconstruction in Gaza and warned that refusal could lead to a return to war.
This week, Mladenov said there was “no daylight” between the Board of Peace and Israel regarding security concerns, when he spoke to Israel’s i24 news channel. He stressed that donors would not fund Gaza’s reconstruction unless there was a lasting peace.
“The Board of Peace has significant commitments in terms of financing from the Gulf countries but only once conditions in Gaza are such that there will be no return to war – that includes decommissioning of weapons in Gaza,” Mladenov said.
While Hamas has publicly welcomed the creation of the new 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee – and pledged to hand over governance to the body – there have been growing signs that the group is reasserting its authority.
Traders and shopkeepers complain that it imposes new taxes on goods and services. Hamas has reactivated its police force.
Under Trump’s 20-point plan, an international stabilisation force is supposed to enter Gaza, working with a new Palestinian police force. The plan says Hamas – which led the deadly attack and mass hostage taking in Israel in October 2023, triggering the war – should have no role in future governance.
The Hamas-led attack killed about 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage, Israeli authorities say. Israel’s offensive has killed 72,628 people in Gaza, the health authority there says.
Regional mediators Qatar, Egypt and Turkey are currently said to be exerting heavy pressure on Hamas to move on disarmament.
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