The first official data in weeks on the US job market is out, and it showed a surprising pick-up in hiring after a lacklustre summer.
Employers added 119,000 jobs in September,more than double what many analysts had expected, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%, the Labor Department figures showed.
The US government shutdown, which ended last week after more than a month, had delayed publication of the figures for nearly seven weeks, leaving policymakers guessing about the state of the job market at a delicate moment.
Job growth has still barely budged since April, raising pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates to support the economy.
But policymakers at the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, have been divided about the need for further interest rate cuts. In addition to the health of the job market, they are also monitoring price inflation that ticked up to 3% in September, above the 2% rate the bank wants to see.
Looming over the debate are questions like whether artificial intelligence (AI) will dampen demand for workers over the long term and how a crackdown on immigration is changing labour supply and demand.
Businesses are also wrestling with cutbacks to government spending, new tariff costs and uncertain consumer demand.
A private report this month by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found the number of job cuts in October hit the highest number for the month since 2003, as high-profile companies includingAmazon, Target and UPS announced reductions.
On Thursday, telecoms giant Verizon also said it was cutting more than 13,000 jobs, citing in part “changes in technology and in the economy” for the move.
The announcements have raised concerns about cracks in what has been seen as a “low-hire, low-fire” job market.
But evidence of wider deterioration has been elusive, as claims for unemployment benefits remain stable.
Health care firms, restaurants and bars led the job gains in September, while transportation and warehousing firms, manufacturers and the government shed jobs.
“The September jobs report may be backward looking but offers reassurance that the labour market wasn’t crumbling before the government shutdown,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics.
However, she noted noting that the data from October is likely to be weaker, due to government layoffs.
Limited hiring has already prompted the ranks of people without work more than six months to swell this year, though their numbers dipped a bit in September.
Unusually, the strains have been particularly pronounced among those with college degrees. The unemployment rate for that group rose to 2.8% in September, up from from 2.3% a year earlier.
“It’s been pretty challenging,” said Mason Leposavic, who has applied to thousands of jobs since graduating in May 2024 from the Rochester Institute of Technology.
While the 24-year-old did eventually find part-time work as a bartender, he has failed to find the kind of office role he hoped for in sales, tech or similar sectors.
He said the search had been dispiriting – especially when he saw firms repeatedly re-post openings he had been rejected from for lack of experience – and he was not optimistic it would improve soon.
He is now without work again after switching states to move back in with his mother in Arizona in an attempt to save money.
“I didn’t realise how hard it would be,” he said. “I think everything really changed after AI, especially in the tech industry.”
Information about the situation has been clouded by the government shutdown, which has limited incoming economic data in recent weeks.
Thursday’s report is the last official release on the job market before the Fed’s next meeting in December.
While September’s job gains were stronger than expected, the report also showed job growth in July and August was lower than previously estimated. The US added just 72,000 jobs in July and shed 4,000 positions in August.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its next report on the November job market in mid-December, leaving a gap in some data for October.
Analysts said the inconclusive nature of the latest figures was likely to bolster the case for the Fed to move cautiously and hold off on cutting in December.
“The Federal Reserve is still driving in a fog,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist for B Riley Wealth. “As Chair Powell said – ‘When you are driving in a fog, you slow down.’”
Executives from companies such as McDonald’s, Coca-Cola and Chipotle have warned in recent weeks that lower-income households are tightening spending as rising prices put pressure on their budgets and confidence in the job market sinks.
But a strong stock market, bolstered by upbeat reports from many companies,has helped to sustain higher earners.
The Fed has cut its key interest rate twice since September, leaving it in a range of 3.75%-4%, its lowest level in three years.
But Fed chairman Jerome Powell warned last month that another reduction was “far from” a foregone conclusion in December.
At the time he offered reassurance about the job market, saying the mix of data suggested “that you’re seeing maybe continued very gradual cooling, but nothing more than that”.
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