Deloitte is warning that the underperformance in Grants, Petroleum Receipts, and Import Duties poses a threat to the government’s quest to achieve the 2025 revenue target.
This is despite the strong performance in Non-Oil Tax Revenue, Corporate Income Tax, and Mineral Royalties revenue handles.
In its analysis of the 2025 Mid-Year Review Budget, the professional services firm said the downward trend in exchange rates, whilst being favourable in some respects, has weakened revenue performance across specific components.
“We note that the downward trend in exchange rates, whilst being favourable in some respect, has weakened revenue performance across specific components like the petroleum receipts and import duties since material portions of these are indexed in USD [US dollar]. In the future, the government should either match revenue losses with a commensurate reduction in expenditure or introduce other revenue-enhancing measures to counter the impact of such losses to ensure we consolidate the fiscal gains recorded in H1 [first-half] 2025”.
2025 Revenue Target
The government revised upwards the total revenue and grants target from the 2025 Budget of GH¢227.1 billion (16.2% of GDP) to GH¢229.9 billion (16.4% of GDP). This represents an increase of 1.3%.
The additional revenue of GH¢2.9 billion, according to Deloitte, is expected from the increase in revenues from the amendment of the Energy Sector Levies Act, 2025 (Act 1135).
For the first six months of 2025, Total Revenue and Grants yielded GH¢99.3 billion, which is 3.2% below the budgeted target of GH¢102.6 billion.
According to Deloitte, the decline in performance was attributed to Non-Tax Revenue, Oil and Gas Receipts, and Grants receipts over the period.
Despite the shortfall in Total Revenue and Grants, the outturn for the first six months of 2025 represented a growth of 30.5% over that of 2024.
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