Global cocoa prices edged higher mid-week, consolidating near two-week highs as supply concerns from West Africa continued to support the market. These developments have direct implications for Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.
Prices have drawn support from slowing cocoa arrivals at ports in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest producer. Deliveries for the week ending December 28 fell by 27 percent compared with the same period last year. Cumulative shipments for the current 2024/25 marketing year are also two percent lower than last season. The slowdown has raised concerns about tighter near-term supply across the sub-region.
In Ghana, market sentiment has been supported by favourable weather conditions. Cocoa farmers report that regular and well-timed rainfall has aided pod development ahead of the harmattan season. The combination of rain and sunshine across key growing areas has improved flowering and tree health, offering cautious optimism for the main crop after recent production challenges.
International demand remains mixed. North American cocoa grindings recorded modest growth in the third quarter. However, demand in Asia and Europe weakened sharply. Asia posted its lowest third-quarter grindings in nine years, while Europe recorded its weakest Q3 performance in a decade. This has weighed on overall price momentum.
Despite weaker demand, cocoa prices continue to find support from tightening global supply conditions. The International Cocoa Organization recently cut its estimate for the 2024/25 global cocoa surplus to 49,000 metric tonnes. It also lowered global production forecasts, citing persistent structural constraints across producing countries. Earlier data showed the world experienced its largest cocoa deficit in more than 60 years during the 2023/24 season.
Additional support is coming from investor activity in commodities markets. Expectations of increased buying have risen following plans to include cocoa futures in major commodity indices from January. Analysts say this could attract significant institutional inflows and tighten market conditions further.
Regional supply risks also remain elevated. Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, has projected an 11 percent decline in output for the 2025/26 season. This adds to concerns about West Africa’s ability to meet global demand sustainably.
For Ghana, the evolving market presents both opportunity and caution. Improved farm-level conditions could support production and earnings. However, weak global demand and regulatory uncertainties, including delays in the European Union’s deforestation rules, may continue to influence price movements in the months ahead.
As the main crop season progresses, stakeholders across Ghana’s cocoa value chain will closely monitor whether improved weather, tighter global supply, and rising investor interest translate into sustained price stability and better returns for farmers.
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