The September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) highlights a year-on-year (YoY) inflation rate of 9.4%, the lowest in four years and the ninth consecutive monthly decline. On the surface, this appears to signal easing price pressures and a path toward macroeconomic stability. However, a closer look reveals contradictions in interpretation, particularly when short-term price movements are considered.
While YoY inflation declined from 11.5% in August to 9.4% in September, the month-on-month (MoM) rate shifted from -1.3% in August to +0.9% in September. This represents a clear reversal: prices that were falling in August are now rising again in September. In real terms, this means households experienced fresh cost increases in the immediate period, even though the YoY figure suggested easing pressures.
The GSS release downplays this nuance by emphasizing the longer-term disinflation trend while presenting limited commentary on the MoM rebound. Yet for consumers and businesses, MoM inflation often reflects the lived reality of prices in markets, whether food costs, transport fares, or electricity bills. This is particularly critical given that food inflation, though reduced year-on-year (14.8% in August to 11.0% in September), still rose 0.6% MoM, and non-food prices climbed 1.1% MoM.
The apparent contradiction underscores the need for clearer communication: disinflation (slower pace of increase) does not mean prices are falling. Prices remain high, and in the short term, they are rising again. For policymakers, this signals that vigilance is still required. Sustaining fiscal discipline, stabilizing the exchange rate, and addressing food supply constraints remain essential to prevent short-term price spikes from undermining the longer-term disinflation gains.
While the September CPI release correctly captures the YoY decline in inflation, its framing risks misleading the public. A more balanced interpretation is that Ghana has achieved encouraging disinflationary momentum, but short-term price pressures are resurfacing, and households continue to feel the burden.
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