Ghana’s inflation has fallen dramatically over 2025, but data from the Bank of Ghana reveals that the confidence of ordinary Ghanaians has not kept a steady pace with the improving macroeconomic indicators.
The central bank’s latest Summary of Economic and Financial Data – November 2025 shows a recovery on paper, yet the public mood continues to fluctuate in surprising ways.
Inflation has dropped sharply from 23.8% in December 2024 to 6.3% by November 2025, marking one of the fastest disinflation periods in recent years. Food inflation fell from 27.8% to 6.6%, while non-food inflation declined from 20.3% to 6.1% over the same period.
Ordinarily, such rapid easing of price pressures should trigger a steady rise in consumer optimism. But the Bank of Ghana’s own confidence indicators suggest the opposite: Ghanaians are not responding in a straight line.
Beyond inflation, monetary policy also signals recovery on paper. The Bank of Ghana cut the Monetary Policy Rate from 28.0% earlier in 2025 to 18% in November, reflecting growing confidence in disinflation and macroeconomic stability.
In theory, such easing is meant to restore confidence among businesses by lowering financing costs and improving expectations, yet this confidence boost has so far been limited.
The Consumer Confidence Index, which measures how households feel about economic conditions, rose from 90.2 early in 2025 to a high of 119.2, only to drop again to 115.3 a short while later.
A similar pattern appears in business sentiment.
The Business Confidence Index climbed to 107.5 before slipping back to 106.5, despite the favourable inflation trend.
The volatility in sentiment contrasts sharply with the stability of the headline numbers. It suggests that while inflation is falling on the charts, households and firms may still be dealing with aftershocks, such as earlier price hikes, higher cost of living, reduced purchasing power, and lingering uncertainty about whether the improved conditions are sustainable.
The data could also indicate that expectations are lagging behind reality. After several years of economic instability, many Ghanaians may simply be cautious in believing that the recovery is solid and lasting, even when official figures point to improvement.
This uneasy relationship between falling inflation and fluctuating confidence highlights a larger point: economic recovery does not automatically translate into psychological recovery.
Prices may be slowing, but the lived experience of households, their sense of security, predictability, and financial stability, seems to be improving much more slowly.
If this trend continues, Ghana may face a situation where the macroeconomic story shows recovery, but the public’s confidence and willingness to spend, invest, or expand remains restrained, slowing the overall pace of growth.
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