The World Bank’s food price index is projected to fall by 7.0% in 2025 year-on-year and edge down in 2026.
All three components of the index are expected to decline in 2025—grains by 11% and oils and meals, and other foods, by 7% and 5%, respectively.
According to its Commodity Markets Outlook, all sub-components of the food index are however expected to remain broadly stable in 2026.
The projected downturn in grain prices for 2025 is primarily driven by an expected 29% plunge in rice prices, reflecting ample supplies and the relaxation of export restrictions by India.
Similarly, global rice production in 2024-25 is expected to increase by 2%, with production in India— which accounts for about 40% of global exports, forecast to rise by 5%.
Rice Prices
Rice prices are projected to be stable in 2026 as preliminary estimates for the 2025-26 season from the International Grains Council indicate that a small increase in global supply will be matched by a similar increase in consumption.
Wheat Prices
Wheat prices are forecast to edge down in 2025-26, as downward demand pressure related to trade tensions is partially offset by tight supply conditions.
The World Bank added that near-record wheat production is expected to be narrowly outpaced by consumption, resulting in a decline in global stocks.
Maize Prices
Also, maize prices are forecast to edge down by 2.0% in both 2025 and 2026, weighed down by lower crude oil prices—which reduce demand for ethanol, and thereby for maize—and increased tariffs on U.S.-China trade.
Further downward pressure stems from the price advantage of maize in recent months over soybeans and wheat, which is likely to incentivize maize acreage expansion, with production projected to rebound in the 2025-26 season.
However, the price decline is expected to be limited by tight inventories, projected to reach their lowest levels in over a decade.
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