The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana will remain dovish with a second successive cut at the September 2025 meeting.
According to IC Research, a leading market research firm, the current inflation with the nominal policy rate of 25.0% translates to an ex-post real policy rate of 13.5%, which could widen to 15.4% in September 2025, without a cut in the policy rate.
This sustains the vast window for another deep rate cut at the September 2025 MPC meeting.
“In view of our cautious stance on utility tariff risk, we estimate a likely 300bps [basis points] cut in the policy rate to 22.0%”, it pointed out.
Inflation has been subsiding, falling to 11.5% in August 2025. This was the lowest price momentum since October 2021.
At the current level, headline inflation screens below the authorities’ end-2025 target of 11.9%.
The MPC cut its policy rate by 300 basis points to 25% in July 2025.
Significant Disinflation in September
Meanwhile, IC Research is forecasting a significant disinflation in September 2025 on the back of favourable base drift effect.
“We anticipate a fourth consecutive month of annual transport fare deflation in September as the 15% reduction in transport fare (in May 2025) continues to support favourable base drift in transport CPI, although the mon-on-month re-acceleration will continue. The re-start of fishing for industrial trawlers will combine with ongoing crop harvest to sustain the food disinflation”.
“Ultimately, we project a more modest uptick in the overall CPI [Consumer Price Index] compared to the upsurge in September 2024, yielding a year-to-date inflation of 9.6% in September 2025 (-190 basis points) despite an estimated month-on-month acceleration to 1.0%.
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