The Minority Caucus in Parliament has welcomed the latest credit rating upgrade of Ghana’s economy by the international ratings agency Fitch.
Describing it as a validation of ongoing recovery efforts, the Caucus was quick to caution that doubts over budget credibility could undermine long-term fiscal stability.
This was in a joint statement signed by the Ranking Member on the Finance Committee, Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam, and the Ranking Member on the Committee on Economy and Development, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, on Tuesday, June 17.
The Minority acknowledged Fitch’s decision to upgrade Ghana’s sovereign rating following the country’s significant progress with debt restructuring and signs of macroeconomic stability.
Fitch’s upgrade, announced earlier this week, cited Ghana’s successful restructuring of approximately $13 billion in Eurobond debt—concluded in October 2024—as a key reason for the improved outlook.
The ratings agency noted that the restructuring had sharply reduced the country’s debt service obligations, significantly lowering the risk of default in the medium term.
The Minority attributed this milestone primarily to initiatives started under the previous NPP government, which they claim secured a total debt relief package of about $12 billion.
They also commended the current NDC administration for continuing the process by pursuing the restructuring of the remaining $2.6 billion in commercial debt, about 5% of the total external debt profile.
“The completion of the restructuring of this remaining component will be useful in completing the programme,” the statement read.
According to Fitch, Ghana posted a strong current account surplus of 4.3% of GDP in 2024—the highest in recent years—though it expects the figure to decline to 1.1% by 2026.
Inflation has also shown a downward trajectory, falling from a high of 44% in 2022 to 23% in 2024, and reaching 18% in May 2025.
However, the agency warned that the government’s inflation target of 11% for 2025 may be missed, projecting an end-year rate of 15%.
Fitch also praised Ghana’s resilience during the debt restructuring period, noting a robust GDP growth of 5.7% in 2024.
However, it forecasted slower growth rates of 4.0% and 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively.
“These developments vindicate the NPP’s stance that the economy bequeathed to the NDC was strong and laid the foundation for accelerating economic development,” the Minority leaders said.
Despite welcoming the improved outlook, the Minority expressed concern over several critical elements of the 2025 budget flagged by Fitch as lacking credibility. Chief among these was the projected fiscal performance.
The government’s 2025 budget targets a primary surplus of 1.5% on a commitment basis, a key benchmark under the IMF program. However, Fitch estimates the figure will fall short, ending the year at just 0.5%, a full percentage point below target.
“This casts doubt on the government’s ability to meet the IMF target and raises red flags about overall fiscal discipline,” the statement noted.
Additionally, Fitch raised questions about the government’s revenue-enhancement measures, suggesting that debt servicing costs relative to revenue could worsen in 2025 and 2026.
The debt service-to-revenue ratio is projected to climb to 26% from 25% in 2024, signalling possible stress in meeting fiscal obligations.
The Minority believes the rating upgrade could have been even stronger had these fiscal risks been adequately addressed.
In light of Fitch’s findings, the Minority has urged the Finance Minister to revise the government’s fiscal targets when the mid-year budget is presented in July.
“We urge the government to take steps to ensure that further incidents that undermine the credibility of the 2025 budget are avoided,” the statement read.
“The Minister for Finance must urgently revise the budget targets to reflect the true state of the economy.”
While the Minority sees the Fitch upgrade as an important endorsement of Ghana’s economic recovery, they maintain that prudent fiscal management and credible policy implementation will be crucial to sustaining the gains and restoring investor confidence.
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