Let’s be clear, Israel’s so-called “pre-emptive strike” on Iran is a naked aggression and a violation of Article 2(4) of the United Nations charter. It is also a departure from the principle of self-defence as enshrined in Article 51 of the said charter. However, to understand Netanyahu’s political calculations, we must peel away the dense layers of domestic and international politics at play, along with the geopolitical risks and interests of key players in the region and beyond. This isn’t a religious war, but that of two adversaries with distinct religious persuasions.
To start with, since the October 7 attack and the beginning of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, the zionist state’s foreign policy has not been driven by national interest but one man’s desperation, and that man is Benjamin Netanyahu. Legally, Netanyahu is a marked man both domestically and internationally. He faces a slew of corruption allegations at home and consequential war crime charges abroad, with their implications stretching beyond him. The charges could ensnare Western leaders for their complicity in the live-filmed genocide in Gaza. Additionally, it may realign global order and potentially end Western unilateralism and the “reckless” military that led to the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and the intervention in Libya. It could additionally give agency to the Global South. As his legal woes deepen under the crosshairs of the law, his decisions have become selfish and narrow-minded, hinging solely on the wheels of political survival. Despite his bravado, he sees the writing on the wall and fears the impending reckoning.
Perpetual war as a survival tool and political strategy:
Not only has he supervised Israel’s worst disaster and intelligence failure since 1973, but to his credit, he also steered the country towards its longest war and international isolation. Even when he earned spectacular intelligence coups and successfully decapitated Hezbollah through the pager explosions and massive bombing campaign that followed, he failed to translate these tactical gains into strategic victory A ceasefire and complete withdrawal from Gaza and other Arab territories would have facilitated the expansion of the Abrahams accords to include Saudi Arabia; its crown jewel. But Netanyahu can have none of that; he is vulnerable and beholden to the demands and machinations of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, his respective national security and finance ministers, without whom he risks the collapse of his embattled government and may likely face jail. To retain a firm grip over his fractured coalition, he doubled down on the Gaza war with monstrous intensity and genocidal violations of all international humanitarian laws. Moreover, Smotrich and Ben Gvir have been pleased and placated. Since blood oils their politics, he further expanded his occupation of Syrian territory.
Accountability and the gathering storm:
Another reason that explains Netanyahu’s latest gamble will probably be the recent dip in Israel’s fortune over its atrocities in Gaza. The UK led multination sanctioning of Smotrich and Ben amid reported possible French recognition of Palestine, threatening to unravel his vision. The attack may have been conducted to avoid further international rebuke and isolation of the zionist state. Nonetheless, all these factors, when pegged with Iran’s recent disclosure of a successful heist of intelligence on Israel’s nuclear program and other classified materials, put his legacy in tatters and his freedom in jeopardy. To save himself, Netanyahu might have ignited a flame that would consume Israel.
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Al-Hassan Bello is a Political Analyst/ Security and International Affairs Enthusiast. ( Dan Rakiya Institute-DRI). He can be contacted via email: [email protected]
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