Inflation To End 2025 At 11.3%, July Inflation To Fall To 12.7%

IC Research is lowering its end-2025 forecast inflation to between 10.3% and 12.3% (midpoint: 11.3%) from its prior 11.8% and 13.8%.

“We expect the upcoming crop harvest in 3Q2025 [quarter 3, 2025] and a favourable base effect in 4Q2025 [quarter 4, 2025] to fan the disinflation flame in 2H2025 [second-half of 2025] with a slight possibility to land on a single digit in the 9.0% area by FY2025 [second-half of 2025]. However, our anticipation of a major hike in electricity tariff in 4Q2025 [quarter 4, 2025] and introduction of the suspended GH¢1.0/litre fuel levy on 16 July 2025 keeps us cautious on the pace of disinflation”.

“For July 2025, we forecast a 100bps [basis points] decline in annual inflation to 12.7% with the 2.45% electricity tariff hike and closed fishing season for industrial trawlers as key upside risks”, it added.

Headline inflation came in sharply below IC Research estimate for June 2025, reflecting a stronger-than-expected pass-through of the recent appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi and deepens its dovish expectation for the July 2025 Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Annual inflation nosedived 470 basis points to 13.7% year-on-year. This pulled the annual headline rate to its lowest level since December 2021.

The month-on-month momentum was more benign, delivering a surprise deflation (-1.2% month-on-month against the projected inflation of 0.8%0. Overall.

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Food Inflation

Food inflation was the main downside catalyst, decelerating by 650 basis points to 16.3% year-on-year as 14 out of the 15 sub-classes witnessed sharp disinflation.

Non-Food Inflation

Non-food inflation declined for the 8th consecutive month to 11.4% year-on-year, the lowest level since November 2021, as a 330 basis points upsurge in inflation for housing & utilities (24.9% year-on-year) was outweighed by sharp disinflation across 10 out of the 12 divisions of non-food inflation.

Notably, transport prices deflated (-8.5% year-on-year) on the back of a 15.2% year-on-year and 12.7% year-on-year decline in prices of petrol and diesel, respectively, due to the favourable impact of the lower exchange rate on imported energy products.

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