The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 4% growth rate for Ghana by the end of 2025.
This was contained in the IMF’s Global Economic Outlook Report released on the sidelines of the Annual World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington DC, USA, on October 14, 2025.
However, the IMF expects Ghana’s economy to grow faster, at 4.8% in 2026.
The projection is slightly below the 4.4% growth target set by the Government of Ghana in the 2025 national budget.
Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.3% in the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the services sector, which grew by 9.9% and contributed the largest share to GDP.
IMF and World Bank Projections for Ghana
Although the IMF did not give an explicit reason for its projection, sources close to the Fund told Joy Business that the outlook reflects Ghana’s ongoing economic reforms under the IMF programme, which are supporting recovery and fiscal stability.
The IMF forecast is, however, slightly lower than the World Bank’s 4.3% end-of-year projection for Ghana, as stated in the Africa Pulse Report released in October 2025.
Some analysts believe the IMF’s estimate suggests the Fund is less optimistic about Ghana’s short-term growth prospects compared to the World Bank.
IMF’s Inflation Outlook for Ghana
The IMF projects an end-of-year inflation rate of 12% for 2025, marginally above the government’s 11.9% target in the national budget.
This contrasts with Ghana’s recent performance, where inflation dropped sharply to 9.4% in September 2025, down from 21.5% a year earlier.
The Fund’s outlook makes it the second major institution, after the World Bank, to express doubt about Ghana sustaining single-digit inflation by year-end.
The World Bank, in its October Africa Pulse Report, forecasted 15.4% inflation for Ghana in 2025.
Observers say these estimates are “interesting,” given that inflation has been declining steadily and could drop further — possibly to 7% in October 2025, according to local data trends.
Despite these external projections, the Bank of Ghana remains confident that inflation will stay within the single-digit range by December 2025.
The IMF expects further disinflation in 2026, with inflation dropping to 9.4%.
IMF on Global Economy and Ghana
Speaking in Washington DC, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Director of Research, noted that emerging and developing economies like Ghana remain vulnerable to global uncertainties despite showing signs of recovery.
He advised countries to build stronger fiscal buffers to withstand future external shocks.
Mr Gourinchas added that he does not expect the ongoing tariff wars to have a major impact on developing economies.
The IMF report also forecasts that global growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025. Advanced economies are expected to expand by 1.5%, while emerging and developing countries — including Ghana — will grow by about 4%.
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