Fitch Solutions has stated that high cocoa prices are unlikely to boost the government spending and lead to stronger public capital expenditure, weakening any multiplier effect on economic growth.
In an article titled: “Structurally Higher Cocoa Prices Will Bring Only Limited Gains for African Economies”, it said neither the Ivorian nor the Ghanaian finance ministries report cocoa-related revenues separately.
This underscores its limited fiscal weight.
“As a result, high cocoa prices are unlikely to boost government spending and lead to stronger public capex, weakening any multiplier effect on economic growth, it stated.
It however indicated that the absence of local value addition in West Africa will mute the economic impact of elevated cocoa prices.
Despite being the world’s largest cocoa-producing region, West Africa processes only a small share of its beans into higher-value products.
In 2024, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon collectively ranked 27th in global chocolate exports, accounting for just 0.6% of the total.
It stressed that the limited processing capacity weakens the transmission of high cocoa prices into job creation and prevents linkages to other sectors such as packaging, logistics, marketing and construction, weakening the spillover effect on the wider economy.
The prices of cocoa averaged US$8,900/tonne in the first seven months of 2025, more than triple the 2005-2023 average of US$2,500/tonne.
This was caused largely by climate-related supply disruptions in West Africa that led to three consecutive years of global cocoa deficits
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