The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) has recorded a bullish performance in 2024, emerging as the best stock exchange in Africa with a 56.17 percentage gain during the period, an exploit that industry experts are optimistic would continue in 2025.
Ghana’s stock index led Africa with a remarkable 56.17 percent return, the highest since 2013. This was bolstered by a $3 billion IMF bailout and an average GDP growth of 6.3 percent over the year.
Going into 2025, investors anticipate further gains under President John Mahama’s administration, which has prioritised economic stability and fiscal consolidation.
With this backdrop, analysts forecast a 45 percent gain in 2025, underpinned by an improving economy and strengthening cedi currency.
The exchange’s composite index rose from 3,130.23 to 4,888.53, marking its strongest performance in 11 years – since 2013’s 78.8 percent return.
Also, the GSE-CI recorded a stellar 56.17 percent year-to-date (YTD) return, marking the highest in eleven years and more than doubling its five-year average of 20.31 percent.
The outstanding growth is also linked to consistently demonstrating a commitment to driving economic growth and supporting sustainable development in Ghana and beyond.
The 71% Increase in Traded Shares
In 2024, The GSE witnessed a surge in trading activity with 992 million shares traded, representing a 71 percent year-on-year increase. Turnover also rose sharply to GH¢2.15billion, up by 163 percent compared to the previous year. This growth in market activity underscores the increasing appeal of equities among investors seeking higher returns.
The top-five gainers of 2024 included Unilever which posted an impressive 140.44 percent YTD gain and Ecobank Transnational Inc. rose by 106.67 percent. MTN Ghana also featured prominently with a 78.57 percent increase in its share price, closing the year at GH¢2.50.
GSE’s Forward Looking Strategy
With the GSE’s forward-looking strategy reflective of an ambitious vision of creating a robust, inclusive capital market that drives both corporate and economic transformation in Ghana, experts tip the market to sustain the bullish performance in 2025 unabated.
By aligning with regional and continental initiatives, the GSE’s intended target to channel domestic savings into productive local projects, positioning itself as a significant player within Africa’s evolving financial landscape, would not only impact growth in the local economy but continue as the most responsive market.
CFi.co in a statement said through strategic innovation and resilience, GSE has made notable advancements, including the introduction of over-the-counter (OTC) trading services, designed to provide a simplified entry point for companies seeking capital.
It highlighted GSE’s expansion of product offerings which also feature a commercial paper market, enabling companies to access short-term financing, and a dedicated sustainable market segment launched in line with international environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards.
The GSE is projected to deliver another strong performance in 2025, with Data Bank research forecasting a 45 percent gain in the GSE composite index, closing the year at 6,850 points. This follows a 26.13 percent return in dollar terms in 2024, with the Accra Bourse ranking as the best-performing market in Africa in cedi terms.
Key sectors like banking, telecommunications, and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) are expected to drive growth.
MTN Ghana remains a top pick due to strong earnings and dividend yields averaging 12 percent since its 2018 listing. FMCG leaders such as Unilever Ghana, Fan Milk, and Guinness Ghana Breweries are poised for recovery, supported by favorable operating conditions and stronger earnings.
Other analysts anticipate that the Composite Index (GSE-CI), which tracks the performance of the main market, will surpass the 5,000-point mark in this year – extending its remarkable performance from 2024.
An analyst at Fincap Securities, John Nani, on his part, highlighted a growing confidence in the equities market as a key driver for sustained growth.
“The equity market’s broad-based performance is expected to persist, with MTN Ghana continuing to play a leading role due to its consistent dividend payouts, rising revenues and growing profitability,” he said in an interview with B&FT.
The Role of T-Bills & Cedi Depreciation
The Treasury bill market experienced significant undersubscription, with a GH¢20billion shortfall in the third quarter alone. This scarcity of traditional fixed-income options, combined with the cedi’s 19 percent depreciation against the US dollar, redirected investor attention to equities.
The exchange’s Financial Index gained 25.2 percent, recovering from a 7.36 percent decline in 2023. This rebound followed a challenging period after the restructuring of domestic cedi bonds, cocoa bills and domestic dollar bonds had impacted bank balance sheets and dampened investor sentiment.
Equity Market Outperforming T-Bills
The equity market significantly outperformed Treasury bill returns in 2024, as 91-day T-bills stood at 28.24 percent. Similarly, the 182-day and 364-day bills stood at 28.68 percent and 30.07 percent respectively. This reinforced the equity market’s attractiveness as an investment option.
Analysts observed that this trend is likely to continue in 2025, with the broader market expected to deliver stronger returns compared to short-term debt instruments.
Again, this underscores Databank Research forecasted that the GSE-CI could climb to 6,850 points by year-end, representing a projected annual gain of 45 percent (±500 basis points).
MD-GSE, Abena Amoah
The CEO of the GSE, Abena Amoah, recently shared insights on the market’s performance and future plans, in line with analysts and market experts are optimism about the sustainability of this growth in 2025.
She emphasized the importance of engaging the market, executing financial literacy programs, diversifying products, and attracting profitable companies that share information with investors.
In the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Mrs. Amoah emphasized the pivotal role of capital markets in supporting economic transformation and business expansion.
By enabling companies to raise capital and encouraging individual African investors to participate in wealth generation, stock exchanges like the GSE are poised to contribute to the success of AfCFTA and drive growth across the continent.
As the GSE gears up for another year of opportunities and challenges, Abena Amoah’s strategic vision and commitment to market development position the exchange for continued success in 2025.
In conclusion, the Ghana Stock Exchange’s outlook for 2025 reflects confidence in broad-based sector growth, underpinned by improved corporate earnings and market conditions.
The Continental Level Competition
Whilst Ghana came top on the continent in the year under review, other African markets also posted strong performances.
The country’s 56.17 percentage gain recorded was followed closely by the Malawi Stock Exchange with 55.06 percentage gain, continuing its upward trajectory from 2023 when it returned 78.85 percent.
Zambia’s index ranked third, gaining 44.1 percent in 2024 as investors responded to rising copper prices and ongoing economic reforms.
The country’s focus on debt restructuring and infrastructure development has attracted international attention.
With global demand for critical minerals increasing, Zambia’s stock market could sustain its momentum in 2025. This could pose strong competition to Ghana.
Nigeria’s stock market surged 37.7 percent, supported by President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, including currency liberalisation and the removal of fuel subsidies.
The energy sector was a standout, with Oando Plc and Seplat Energy Plc posting exceptional gains.
However, ongoing inflationary pressures and a cost-of-living crisis may temper investor enthusiasm in 2025.
The Uganda Securities Exchange recorded a 36.94 percent appreciation, with its All-Share Index rising from 872.5 to 1194.8.
Notable listings included Airtel Uganda, British American Tobacco and Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Kenya’s market demonstrated a remarkable recovery, posting a 34.06 per cent gain in local currency and leading the continent in USD terms with a 65.3 per cent return.
This performance marked a significant turnaround from 2023, when currency depreciation had made it the world’s worst-performing market in dollar terms.
The BRVM, serving Francophone West Africa, returned 29.7 per cent as its composite index moved from 212.82 to 276.02.
In USD terms, the market achieved a 34.9 per cent return – second only to Kenya among African exchanges.
Morocco’s Casablanca Stock Exchange advanced 22.16 per cent, with its All-Share Index rising from 12,092.88 to 14,773.19.
Construction firm Jet Contractors, Residences Dar Saada and Alliances were among the market’s top performers.
The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange in Tanzania gained 20.85 percent, with its All-Share Index closing at 2,139.73. Major listings included East African Breweries, KCB Group, Tanzania Breweries, Vodacom Tanzania and Tanzania Cigarette.
Egypt’s exchange rounded out the top performers with a 19.47 percent increase in its EGX-30 index.
The broader EGX100 EWI gained 42.40 percent, while market capitalisation increased by $8.85 billion despite the Egyptian pound’s depreciation.
These performances exceeded the MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index’s 7.43 percent gain.
The index tracks several African markets including Ivory Coast, Morocco, Egypt, Mauritius, Kenya and Tunisia.
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