Global experts in social and natural sciences have released the annual 10 New Insights in Climate Science report, offering policymakers the latest and most crucial climate science research from the past 18 months.
The synthesized findings aim to inform discussions at COP28 and guide policy implementation through 2024 and beyond.
The report’s scientific insights serve as vital evidence for business and policy decision-makers, providing them with up-to-date climate science to support informed and effective decision-making for comprehensive climate and nature solutions. This comes amidst the inaugural Global Stocktake at COP28, emphasizing the urgent need for transformative actions to meet the ambitions of the Paris Agreement.
Simon Stiell, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, emphasized the report’s significance as an essential tool for decision-makers during this critical time in the annual climate calendar. He highlighted that the scientific findings should guide the development of ambitious and evidence-based action plans in this pivotal decade of accelerated climate action.
“The 10 New Insights in Climate Science report provides an essential tool for decision makers at a critical time in the climate calendar each year. Scientific findings from reports like these should inform the ambitious and evidence-based action plans needed in this critical decade of accelerated climate action.”
The report’s findings highlight the imminent risk of surpassing the 1.5°C global warming target set by the Paris Agreement, underscoring the critical need for a swift and well-managed phase-out of fossil fuels.
Prof. Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, emphasized that COP28 should mark a global commitment to a serious transition away from fossil fuels. He stated that Dubai presents a crucial opportunity to address coal, oil, and gas, advocating for a shift from a 1% annual increase to a global decrease of at least 5% per year.
Additionally, he stressed the importance of protecting existing carbon sinks and stocks in ecosystems, fostering resilience, and establishing new carbon sinks in agriculture to address both energy and nature concerns.
He expressed concern that the world has fallen short on both nature and energy, leading humanity down a perilous path away from achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C biophysical limit.
“Science is clear. COP28 must be the global meeting when the world gets serious about phasing out fossil-fuels. Dubai is the grand mitigation moment for coal, oil and gas, which need to shift from increasing 1%/yr to decreasing globally by at least 5 %/yr, and for nature by protecting remaining carbon sinks and stocks in ecosystems, plus building resilience and new carbon sinks in agriculture. So far, we have failed on both nature and energy, taking us on a dangerous path towards losing sight of the Paris Agreement target – the 1.5°C biophysical limit.”
The report underscores the necessity of robust policies to achieve the scale required for effective implementation of complementary technology solutions, particularly in the realm of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). This becomes increasingly crucial as concerns emerge regarding the future of land and ocean carbon sinks.
Dr. Oliver Geden, Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and IPCC WG III Vice-Chair, emphasized that while not a substitute for rapid and profound emissions reductions, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is essential to address challenging-to-eliminate emissions and ultimately reduce global temperatures.
He noted that the current CDR is largely forest-based, stressing the urgent need for the swift and large-scale deployment of other CDR methods with permanent CO2 removal. This should be accompanied by enhanced governance and improved monitoring systems.
“While not a replacement for rapid and deep emissions reductions, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) will be necessary to deal with hard-to-eliminate emissions and eventually to reduce the global temperature. Current CDR is predominantly forest-based, but rapid acceleration and deployment at scale of other CDR methods with permanent CO2 removal is required, supported by stronger governance and better monitoring.”
The report highlights the pressing need for enhanced and equitable climate adaptation strategies that proactively address interconnected extreme events and ensure resilience, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.
It also underscores the pivotal role of food systems in climate action, currently contributing to approximately one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions. The report advocates for addressing existing inequalities and emphasizes the importance of adapting policies to regional and sociocultural contexts to establish equitable, low-carbon food systems.
Dr. Aditi Mukherji, Director of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Area Platform at CGIAR, explained that the intricate connections between climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and broader societal needs, including food security, necessitate transformative changes in how socio-ecological systems are jointly governed across all scales.
“Most importantly, due to the growing risks of food insecurity, policies and solutions must be designed and implemented with those who suffer the most.”
The 10 New Insights in Climate Science series, a collaborative initiative of Future Earth, the Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme, has been launched with the UNFCCC at the COPs since 2017. This year’s report, representing the collective efforts of 67 leading researchers from 24 countries, synthesizes the latest developments in climate change research.
Dr. Wendy Broadgate, Global Hub Director of Future Earth, emphasized that science indicates we are on track to exceed the 1.5°C degree target. Minimizing this overshoot is crucial for reducing risks to societies worldwide. She highlighted that COP28 should mark the turning point where collective action to phase out fossil fuels gains momentum.
“Science shows that we are heading for overshooting 1.5°C degrees. Minimising this overshoot is critical if we want to reduce risks to societies all over the world. COP28 must be the inflection point where collective action to phase out fossil fuels gathers pace.”
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