Fitch Solutions expect Ghana’s inflation to remain on a downward trajectory through the second half of 2025, underpinned by a stronger exchange rate.
It has also revised down its average inflation forecasts for Ghana to 15.4% in 2025 and 12.2% in 2026, from 17.1% and 13.9% previously.
According to the UK based firm, the adjustments follow a sharper-than-expected decline in headline inflation in June, which fell to 13.7% year-on-year from 18.4% in May 2025, its lowest level since December 2021.
“The drop in price pressures reflects the cedi’s 50% appreciation against the dollar in April and May alongside a decline in global energy prices amid uncertainty surrounding US trade policy”, it added.
Furthermore, it pointed out that subdued global energy prices and tighter fiscal policy will further support the disinflation process.
“While oil prices briefly spiked during the Iran-Israel war in June [2025], they have since moderated following a ceasefire and remain well below 2024 levels amid weak global demand—exacerbated by US tariffs—and rising oil supply”.
This, it explained will limit upside risks to Ghana’s near-term inflation outlook.
Meanwhile, the UK-based firm says the fiscal discipline under President John Mahama’s administration will take some demand out of the economy, which will have a cooling impact on price growth.
Indeed, the government expenditure fell to 4.0% of GDP in Q1 2025, down from 4.9% in the same period of 2024.
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