Despite lower US foreign aid, Ghana’s economy will face greater external stability in 2025 compared to the previous five years.
According to Fitch Solutions, this is due to rising secondary reserves.
“The country’s reserve position worsened significantly over 2021-2023 due to rapid capital and financial account outflows, driven by a combination of global risk aversion following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, interest rate hikes in developed markets, and investor concerns about Ghana’s rising debt burden. However, reserves have started recovering in 2024, reaching US$6.4 billion in December [2024]—the highest level in three years—supported by a sizeable current account surplus, continued IMF disbursements, and reduced financial outflows”, it said in its latest report on Ghana.
It pointed out that reserves will continue to rise in the coming months.
It added that improved investor sentiment following the conclusion of Ghana’s debt restructuring process should boost capital inflows in the coming quarters, noting, combined with a continued current account surplus, “we project that this will boost international reserves to US$8.8bn—or 3.5 months’ worth of imports by the end of 2025.
External Position Remains Vulnerable
It, however, warned that despite the improvements, Ghana’s external position remains vulnerable to exogenous shocks.
“The country’s trade balance is highly susceptible to volatile commodity prices, especially gold. While we expect gold prices to remain elevated in 2025, a stronger-than-expected US dollar or decisive resolutions to military conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could drive prices down sharply, adversely impacting Ghana’s exports”.
“In addition, although blanket tariffs imposed by US President Trump would not affect Ghana’s exports in a significant way, they could dampen investor sentiment towards emerging markets, which would trigger capital outflows and strain the country’s foreign exchange liquidity”, it concluded.
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