Fitch Solutions is warning that the risks to Ghana’s economic growth outlook are clearly tilted to the downside.
According to the UK-based firm, the principal vulnerability stems from gold prices, which its Commodities Team expects to average a record US$3,700 per ounce in 2026.
However, a sharper-than-expected resurgence in US inflation prompting renewed monetary tightening, or an unexpected easing in geopolitical tensions, could trigger sharp price corrections in 2026, it stressed
“In such a scenario, Ghana’s external accounts would face immediate headwinds, eroding its international reserves and putting the cedi under greater pressure than we currently assume. This would push inflation higher and likely force the Bank of Ghana to delay further easing or even resume policy tightening.
Islamist Insurgency
It continued that “another key risk stems from the worsening Islamist insurgency in the Sahel.
“While our baseline view is that Ghana will avoid any large-scale spillover, a cross-border incursion from Burkina Faso into northern Ghana would force the government to channel additional resources to the armed forces”.
It noted that this would either directly divert funds away from development projects or require higher borrowing which would push up interest payments and crowd out capital spending.
“In either case, economic growth would fall short of our current real GDP forecast”, it concluded.
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