Fitch Solutions has revised its end-of-year forecast of the cedi-to-dollar rate at GH¢13.0, from its previous projection of GH¢15.5 to one American greenback.
It is also forecasting a 12.9% appreciation against the US dollar in 2025.
According to the UK-based firm, its assumption is based on the local currency appreciating by 16% between late April 2025 and the middle of May 2025. This is on the back of higher gold prices.
“The cedi has appreciated by 16% between late April and the middle of May (time of writing) on the back of higher gold prices, resulting in our Country Risk team revising down their end-2025 forecast for the Ghanaian cedi to GH¢13.0/US dollar, from our previous projection of GH¢15.5/US dollar. We now forecast that the currency will strengthen by 12.9% over 2025, from GH¢14.7/US dollar at the end of 2024.
It continued that the stronger cedi will create room for the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to pivot back to monetary easing.
“As Ghana is a net importer of key consumer goods—including fuel, cereals, pharmaceuticals, and plastics—a stronger exchange rate will have a disinflationary effect. Although the BoG delivered a surprise 100 basis-point rate hike in March[2025], bringing the policy rate to 28.00%, easing inflationary pressures—driven by exchange rate gains—should provide scope for a more accommodative stance in the second half of the year”.
“We therefore expect the BoG to cut the policy rate by a cumulative 200 basis points in H2 [second-half] 2025, ending the year at 26.00%.
According to the UK-based firm, these factors will serve to increase purchasing power for households and be the key drivers of faster spending growth.
Meanwhile, the cedi is going for about GHS11.00 to one dollar.
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