Rating agency, Fitch, has revised its crude oil forecast for 2024 to $80.0 per barrel from the previous $75.
It is however projecting a lower price of crude oil in 2025 to $70 per barrel, same as its earlier forecast of $70.
Presently, crude oil is going for $76 per barrel on the world market.
Therefore, if the price forecast is to hold and based on the stability of the cedi, fuel prices at the pumps will not change much in 2024.
The increased Brent and WTI oil benchmark assumptions for 2024, it said, are supported by OPEC+’s continued attempts to support oil prices, including the recent decision by several members to join Saudi Arabia and Russia in implementing additional cuts in the first quarter of 2024.
According to the UK-based firm, the market is likely to be in a deficit of about 1.2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2023, according to the International Energy Agency.
It explained that OPEC+’s additional curtailments suggest that the deficit could persist in the first half of 2024, provided that compliance with production cuts remains strong.
It added that Russian export volumes remain fairly resilient despite sanctions. US shale production growth is also expected to moderate to 0.4MMbpd in 2024 from 1.5MMbpd in 2023, according to the EIA, as companies prioritise dividends and deleveraging over expansionary investments.
Presently, the average price of petrol per litre is selling at ¢12.35 at the pumps. Diesel is however going for ¢15.90 per litre.
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