The Ghana cedi is expected to end the year against the dollar at GH¢11.45 on the interbank market.
According to IC Research, one of Ghana’s leading economic research firms, it expects enhanced price discovery in the months ahead as foreign exchange market rates are allowed to converge.
“While we continue to expect the interbank US dollar Ghana cedi rate to close full year 2025 below our estimated fair value, we reiterate the possibility for the interbank levels to steadily rise towards our revised FY2025 midpoint forecast of GH¢10.95/USD with the forecast ceiling at GH¢11.45/USD”.
Presently, the local currency is going for GH¢10.40 to one US dollar on the interbank market. It is selling at more than GH¢12 in the retail market.
Continuing, IC Research said that although the International Monetary Fund applauded the Bank of Ghana’s measures to steady price levels and exchange rate, the IMF Board appeared concerned about continued strong forex market interventions by the Central Bank.
“Our estimate showed year-to-date FX sales of US$4.6 billion on the interbank market by the Bog [Bank of Ghana] as of 7 July 2025, while concurrently accumulating FX [forex]reserves, through a strategic tweak to the domestic gold purchase programme.”
“This appears to have created a significant divergence between the interbank rate at GH¢10.35/USD and retail market levels above GH¢12.0/USD, with the latter closer to our estimated fair value of GH¢12.2/USD”, it added.
Unsurprisingly, it mentioned that the IMF proposed a reduction in the Bank of Ghana’s forex market footprint, allowing for “greater exchange rate flexibility” and adopting an internal foreign exchange intervention policy framework.
“In view of this recommendation, we think the BoG’s decision to lengthen the FX [forex] delivery tenor from 2-day Forwards to 7-day Forwards since 11 June 2025 was to partly align with the Fund’s proposa1”, it concluded.
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