The policy rate of the Bank of Ghana is expected to go down again in September 2025.
According to IC Research, the research arm of IC Securities, it foresees a favourable crop harvest and ongoing cedi appreciation pass-through effects to sustain the disinflation to widen the real policy rate beyond the latest level of 11.3%.
“We see a strong possibility for another cut in September 2025 as favourable crop harvest and ongoing cedi appreciation pass-through sustains the disinflation to widen the real policy rate beyond the latest level of 11.3%”.
A cut in the policy rate will see a further decline in lending rates and ease the cost of borrowing.
In July 2025, the Monetary Policy Rate of the Bank of Ghana cut its base lending rate to banks by 300 basis points to 25.00%. This was after inflation had eased for five consecutive months.
IC Research revealed in its paper on Ghana’s MPC Update: Rate Cut Resumes with a Dovish Bias, that the MPC’s updated forecast appears to confirm its view of a strong possibility for single-digit inflation by end-2025, although uncertainty around the 4th quarter of 2025 utility tariff hike restrained the size of cut in its end-2025 revised inflation forecast.
“In our June 2025 inflation update, we projected policy easing to commence at the July 2025 MPC meeting with at least 300bps reduction in the nominal rate. We opined that the disinflation-induced sharp rise in the real policy rate to 14.3% (pre-MPC) has provided a wide scope for a deep cut in the nominal policy rate. However, we opted for a first cut of at least 300bps in July [2025] to preserve the tight stance and sustain the disinflation trend ahead of the expected steep hike in electricity tariff in 4Q2025 [quarter 4 2025]”.
It added that the MPC appeared to have echoed its view when it cited lingering upside risk emanating from global trade tensions and expected hike in utility tariff with the sustained tight policy stance as a mitigation.
Banking Sector Recovery
Meanwhile, IC Research says the banking sector recovery has neared pre-Domestic Debt Exchange Programme solvency, although asset quality may require regulatory intervention.
According to the firm, the latest banking sector data showed a sharp recovery in the industry’s average Capital Adequacy Ratio without regulatory reliefs to 18.2% in June 2025.
“We believe this improvement reflects the recent capital injection into the National Investment Bank by the Ghanaian Government, as most of the privately-owned banks had made strong progress on capital restoration”.
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