The Bank of Ghana will resume monetary easing in the third quarter of 2025, albeit at a cautious pace.
According to Fitch Solutions, the policy rate will go down by 200 basis points to 26.00% by the end of 2025.
This will be followed by a further 300 basis points to 23% in 2026.
“Inflation easing gradually, supported by exchange rate stability and lower energy prices, we forecast a cumulative 200bps [basis points] reduction in the policy rate to 26.00% by end-2025, followed by a further 300bps cut to 23.00% in 2026”, it stated in a report.
In March 2025, the central bank delivered a surprise rate hike of 100 basis points, taking the policy rate to 28.00%.
This marked the first Monetary Policy Committee meeting under new Governor Johnson Asiama, who adopted a much more hawkish stance than his predecessor, Ernest Addison.
It emphasised that inflation must become “firmly anchored” before it considers cutting rates again.
Policy rate to be held steady – Databank Research
Databank Research has earlier said that the Bank of Ghana’s policy rate is expected to be held steady at 28%, with any cut contingent on disinflation progress.
According to the firm, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely adopt a wait-and-see stance to gauge the impact of prior tightening.
The MPC is expected to commence its quarterly sitting from May 21, 2025, to May 23, 2025.
According to Databank Research, barring internal or external shocks, its projections suggest a steady disinflation path, likely settling between 17–19% by mid-year on base effects and stable prices.
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