The latest poll on the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries by Global Info Analytics has uncovered a perplexing twist. Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, the front-runner, has surged ahead in popularity among educated delegates, while maverick MP Ken Agyapong takes the lead among those with no formal education.
Global Info Analytics’ extensive survey of over 4,300 NPP delegates from all corners of Ghana has revealed a striking phenomenon. Bawumia garners 44% support among delegates with tertiary education, while Agyapong trails behind with 25%.
In a stark contrast, Agyapong manages to outpace Bawumia, capturing 38% support among delegates with no formal education, while Bawumia trails at 23%.
Analysts have speculated that Agyapong’s unconventional campaign strategy, which deliberately targets grassroots supporters, may account for his traction among the less educated delegates. His fiery rhetoric resonates deeply with ordinary party foot soldiers who are grappling with the brunt of economic hardships.
On the flip side, Bawumia’s appeal, based on his perceived competence and economic expertise, resonates better with the educated delegates who may prioritize macroeconomic policies over populist messaging.
As the NPP has typically been known to attract the educated, this unique divide in support bases poses an intriguing challenge. Reconciling the preferences of degree-holding supporters for Bawumia with grassroots activists backing Agyapong will be a complex task for the party leadership post-primaries.
This atypical educational schism in the NPP support bases highlights the divergent styles and approaches adopted by the two front-runners. While unconventional, it also presents both opportunities and challenges for the NPP as they navigate the path forward.
The party faithful will undoubtedly anticipate the eventual flagbearer’s ability to creatively bridge the gap between technocratic acumen and populist appeal, effectively connecting with both the grassroots and the educated elite. The upcoming NPP primaries and the ensuing 2024 elections promise to be a platform where this intriguing dynamic plays out.
Key Highlights from the Poll:
- In the NPP presidential primaries, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leads with 43.5% support among delegates, followed by Kennedy Agyapong at 23.5%. This indicates that Bawumia is the front-runner, but Agyapong has garnered significant support as well.
- A substantial 18.3% of delegates are still undecided, signifying that the race is not entirely settled. The potential for intensive campaigning to sway these undecided delegates remains significant.
- Bawumia enjoys strong support in the northern regions, with over 70% backing in many areas. Agyapong, on the other hand, is showing strength in the central, western, and Volta regions.
- Bawumia’s support has seen a noteworthy increase from 34.8% in June to 43.5% presently, while Agyapong’s support has grown from 12.5% to 23.5% over the same period.
- In a hypothetical runoff between Bawumia and Agyapong, Bawumia leads by 43% to 25%, with many delegates still undecided.
- If undecided delegates break heavily for Agyapong, the race is likely to tighten significantly, but Bawumia still leads in most projections.
- Bawumia garners more support among male delegates compared to their female counterparts. Additionally, he performs better among delegates with higher levels of education.
- The poll predicts that Bawumia would secure 65.3% of the national delegates’ vote compared to 34.2% for Agyapong if undecided delegates voted in the same proportions. However, the race is expected to be much closer and hotly contested.
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