A political historian and analyst has argued that Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s current political posture conflicts with the principles and electoral logic that once defined his rise as a leading economic voice within the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
Prof. Samuel Adu-Gyamfi of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST) questions the NPP’s 2024 presidential candidate’s consistency, credibility, and campaign strategy, cautioning that unresolved contradictions in his record could undermine public trust ahead of the party’s presidential primary.
The NPP has scheduled its presidential primary for Saturday, January 31, to select a flagbearer for the 2028 general elections.
Five candidates are contesting the race, including Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, Dr Bryan Acheampong, Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum, and Kwabena Agyei Agyepong.
With voter register validation completed nationwide and balloting concluded, campaigning has intensified, placing the leading aspirants under increasing public and internal scrutiny.
Addressing journalists in Kumasi, Prof. Adu-Gyamfi said democratic leadership is sustained by credibility over time, not by shifting standards.
“Political actors are not judged only by what they say today. They are judged by whether their current positions remain consistent with the principles they once declared as non-negotiable,” he said.
He recalled that between 2014 and 2016, Dr Bawumia built his public reputation as a fierce critic of fiscal indiscipline, economic mismanagement, and weak governance, positions Prof Adu-Gyamfi says were framed as moral and economic absolutes.
“The issue is not that circumstances change. Circumstances always do. The issue is whether Dr. Bawumia has explained why the standards he once championed should no longer apply,” he added.
Promised Voting Blocs Fail to Materialise
Prof Adu-Gyamfi also questioned claims that Dr. Bawumia could rely on overwhelming support from Zongo communities, northern constituencies, and Muslim voters, an argument that featured prominently in his earlier campaign messaging.
He said available electoral results indicate that the expected bloc support did not materialise, with Dr. Bawumia underperforming in several constituencies where he had been projected to dominate.
“If Dr. Bawumia genuinely believed that voter appetite for another northern presidential candidate was limited, his decision to contest again raises an unavoidable analytical puzzle,” Prof. Adu-Gyamfi said.
“This exposes a credibility gap between mobilisation rhetoric and electoral delivery,” he added, questioning the reliability of identity-based voting assumptions in Ghana’s evolving political landscape.
Electoral Logic Turned on Its Head
The political analyst also questioned Dr Bawumia’s past assessment of Ghana’s electoral dynamics, particularly his public remarks during the 2023 presidential primaries and the 2024 general elections, in which he asked whether Ghanaians would vote for another northern presidential candidate after former President John Mahama.
According to Prof. Adu-Gyamfi, that assessment now raises a fundamental contradiction.
“If he genuinely believed voter appetite for another northern candidate was limited, what has changed? Has voter behaviour shifted, has new data emerged, or has that analysis simply been abandoned?” he asked.
He warned that when electoral logic conflicts, it usually signals new information or a change in motivation.
“Where no new evidence is presented, people are entitled to question motive,” he said.
The press conference further drew attention to what Prof. Adu-Gyamfi described as a conspicuous silence on economic stewardship in Dr. Bawumia’s current campaign messaging, despite the economy historically being his strongest political asset.
“For years, the economy was the foundation of Dr Bawumia’s credibility.
When that foundation is no longer foregrounded, voters will naturally ask whether the record has become too costly to defend,” he stressed.
He noted that in political communication, sustained issue avoidance is widely interpreted as a sign of vulnerability rather than strategic restraint.
While stressing that the analysis does not accuse Dr. Bawumia of bad faith, Prof. Adu-Gyamfi warned that failure to address apparent contradictions could undermine public confidence.
“Without clear explanations, voters will interpret these shifts not as principled adaptation, but as goalpost movement after the fact,” he said.
He also highlighted the broader stakes for the NPP ahead of the primaries.
“There will be a great test of the NPP’s internal democracy. I want to advise the party: the one who wins the primaries must also be positioned to win the national elections. If it is only to count their days from 16 years to 20 years, it will not only be political gimmickry, it will be political foolishness,” Prof. Adu-Gyamfi concluded.
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