Aephaniel Owusu-Agyemang: Why The IMF Recommends Reducing Forex Market Intervention In Ghana

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently advised the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to scale back its interventions in the foreign exchange (forex or FX) market. While such recommendations might appear complex to the average Ghanaian, the essence of the message is simple: allow the market to work more naturally while strengthening the economy in the long term.

This advice comes at a time when Ghana has been grappling with persistent currency depreciation, rising inflation, and pressure on foreign reserves. To help ordinary citizens better understand the IMF’s position, this article breaks down the reasons and benefits behind the recommendation.

Why Does the Central Bank Intervene in the Forex Market?

First, it’s important to understand what forex intervention means. When the Ghana cedi is losing value rapidly against major currencies like the US dollar, the BoG may sell its foreign currency reserves mostly dollars to support the cedi. This short-term measure can stabilize the exchange rate, make imports more affordable, and calm investor nerves.

These interventions help in a few ways which includes

Stabilizing the currency: Prevents the cedi from falling too quickly, which could make essential goods like medicine, fuel, and food even more expensive.
Boosting confidence: Shows that the central bank is actively working to protect the economy, which reassures businesses and investors.
Supporting imports: A stable exchange rate helps importers plan better and protects consumers from price shocks on imported goods.

However, while these short-term actions offer temporary relief, they come with long-term risks that the IMF believes Ghana must address.

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The Risks of Over-Intervention

The IMF’s main concern is that frequent interventions in the forex market are not sustainable. Here’s why:

Depleting Foreign Reserves
Every time the BoG sells US dollars to support the cedi, it draws from the country’s foreign reserves. These reserves are like a safety net, meant to be used in times of crisis. If they are used too often, Ghana could run low on the very funds it needs during economic emergencies or for critical imports.
Fueling Inflation
Selling foreign currency usually involves injecting more cedis into the system. Too much local currency in circulation can lead to higher prices for goods and services which is inflation. This occurs as a result of the demand -pull inflationary effects of where demand increase do not match up to production.
Artificial Stability
Constant interventions can create a false sense of calm. While the exchange rate may appear stable, the underlying economic problems will remain unaddressed. This artificial stability can deter long-term investors who prefer predictable and market-driven conditions.

The IMF’s Recommendation: A Shift to Smarter Policy

Rather than relying heavily on interventions, the IMF is urging Ghana to adopt a more structured and transparent policy framework for managing its currency. This includes:

Letting the market play a bigger role in setting exchange rates, known as a managed float system.
Using interest rate policy to manage inflation instead of direct forex market support.
Building strong institutionalframeworks to improve transparency and predictability in the FX market.

By doing this, Ghana can build a more resilient economy and reduce the risks of inflation and reserve depletion.

The Benefits of a Proper FX Policy Framework

Implementing a clear and effective FX policy framework has several long-term advantages:

Protects the economy by preserving foreign reserves for genuine emergencies.
Boosts investor confidence through transparency and predictability.
Promotes price stability, helping citizens and businesses better manage their budgets.
Encourages economic self-reliance, reducing the need for external bailouts or emergency funding.

What This Means for Everyday Ghanaians

At the heart of this policy recommendation is the wellbeing of Ghanaians. Less frequent intervention doesn’t mean the BoG will stop protecting the cedi. It means it will do so more wisely. In the long run, this approach can help:

Keep the cost of living in check.
Ensure Ghana has enough reserves for imports.
Create a more stable and trustworthy economic environment.

Conclusion

The IMF’s recommendation for Ghana to reduce its forex market intervention is not about doing less it’s about doing better. By strengthening its FX policy framework, managing inflation smartly, and preserving critical reserves, Ghana can build a more stable economy that serves both present and future generations. With the right policies in place, Ghana can chart a path toward sustainable growth and financial independence.

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