Fitch Solutions has revised its 2026 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Ghana to 5.5%, from the previous 5.9%.
The UK-based firm is attributing this to the war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which it described have dimmed Ghana’s near-term growth outlook.
“While the country’s external and fiscal positions will remain largely insulated from the oil price shock – partly due to record-high gold prices – it will push inflation higher. Indeed, major oil marketing companies in Ghana raised petrol and diesel pump prices by around 8–11% in early March, which will add upside pressure to the transport component of the inflation basket and feed through to higher food prices and utility costs”, it disclosed in its latest article “Strong Quarter 4 2025 For Ghana, But Iran Conflict Dims 2026 Growth Outlook”.
Average Inflation
It also revised Ghana’s average inflation forecast to 7.8% from the initial 7.3%
“Our base case remains that the conflict will be relatively short-lived and that global energy prices will correct fairly quickly. As such, we have modestly revised up our 2026 average inflation forecast to 7.8% from 7.3%, implying a negative but manageable drag on private consumption.
It continued that while the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and elevated global energy prices cast doubt on further monetary easing by the Bank of Ghana, the cumulative rate cuts of 1,250 basis points since mid‑2025 should still feed through into stronger credit uptake in 2026, even if the policy rate remains on hold at the current 15.50%.
“As a result, we maintain our view that materially lower borrowing costs than in previous years will underpin stronger gross fixed capital formation in 2026”, it stated.
It added that stronger output growth in Ghanaian oil and gold production will provide some tailwinds to exports and support headline economic growth this year.
Ghana recorded a 6.0% GDP growth rate in 2026, buoyed by the services sector.
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