The Middle East is on the edge of a much bigger war this Friday, March 13. Israeli airstrikes are currently pounding the Iranian capital while Gulf states repel a massive wave of Iranian drone attacks, marking exactly two weeks since the United States and Israel entered into a direct war with Iran, the conflict has reached a volatile new level. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis, forcing the United States to ease sanctions on Russian oil to stop prices from spinning out of control.
Strategic Strikes and Regional Contagion
Israeli fighter jets struck more than 200 targets across western and central Iran on Friday, focusing on ballistic missile launchers and defence systems. In Tehran, residents reported intense explosions that shook residential buildings. Yechiel Leiter, the Israeli Ambassador to the United States, confirmed the targeting of Basij paramilitary checkpoints in the capital, stating, “Today we hit Basij forces and roadblocks in Tehran, who were restricting the movement of locals.”
The violence has spilt across borders into neighbouring Gulf states. In Oman, two foreigners were killed when a drone crashed in the Sohar industrial district. Meanwhile, a thick plume of smoke rose over Dubai’s financial district following what Emirati authorities described as a “successful interception” of a projectile. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting dozens of drones, including one targeting Riyadh’s diplomatic quarter. In northern Israel, a missile strike in the town of Zarzir caused “extensive destruction” to a residential complex, wounding a 34-year-old woman and a teenager.
The Shadow Leadership and the Hormuz Lever
In his first public statement since assuming power on March 8, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, calling it an area where “the enemy is highly vulnerable.” Khamenei, who succeeded his father after the latter was killed on the first day of the war, has not been seen in public and reportedly sustained “light injuries” in the initial strikes. In a message read by a state media broadcaster, he warned neighbouring countries to close US bases “as soon as possible” and vowed to “avenge the blood” of Iranians, specifically citing the “deliberate crime” of a strike on the Minab school.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that markets are suffering the “largest supply disruption in history” as Tehran suggests oil could reach $200 (approx. GH₵2,174) per barrel. President Donald Trump has dismissed concerns over the waterway’s safety, suggesting in a Fox News interview that tanker crews should “show some guts” and go through the Strait, asserting, “we sunk all their ships.” However, shipping executives continue to request military escorts that the Pentagon has thus far deemed too dangerous to provide. Internal reports now suggest the Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait in response to initial US strikes.
Military Casualties and Aircraft Losses
The coalition effort has faced significant setbacks in Iraq. A US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft carrying at least five crew members went down in western Iraq on Thursday. Central Command confirmed that two aircraft were involved; while one crashed, the second landed safely. The incident was described as “not due to hostile fire or friendly fire,” noting that rescue efforts remain ongoing in friendly airspace during “Operation Epic Fury.”
In Iraqi Kurdistan, a drone attack on a joint French-Kurdish base in Erbil claimed the life of a French soldier. President Emmanuel Macron condemned the strike, saying, “This attack against our forces is unacceptable. The war in Iran cannot justify such attacks.” While no group has claimed responsibility, the Iran-backed militia Ashab al-Kahf warned that “all French interests in Iraq and the region will be under fire.”
Global Economic Fallout and Russian Oil
The maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil travels—has sent Brent crude above $100 (approx. GH₵1,087) per barrel. In a pragmatic shift, the Trump administration issued a temporary license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterised the move as a “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” to increase global supply without providing “significant financial benefit” to Moscow.
Asian economies, which rely on the Middle East for 60% of their crude, are aggressively tapping strategic reserves. Japan is set to release 80 million barrels, while South Korea has capped domestic gasoline prices for the first time in three decades at 1,724 South Korean Won (approx. GH₵12.72) per litre. In a similar move, Australia is releasing 762 million litres of fuel from its reserves to assist rural farmers facing the dual crunch of energy costs and fertiliser scarcity. Meanwhile, the main Asian stock markets lost ground on Friday as investors reacted to the deepening regional instability.
The African Nexus: Fertiliser and Food Security
The shockwaves of the war are vibrating through global South economies, with significant implications for African food security. The price of urea—a critical nitrogen fertiliser—has surged 34% in a single month as the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck for one-third of the world’s exports. Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could force a shift in crop cycles and drive up supermarket prices across the continent. While the crisis deepens, investment in renewable energy in countries like Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo may offer a blueprint for long-term energy self-sufficiency away from Middle Eastern volatility.
The Information Battle
Inside Iran, a state-mandated internet blackout has left citizens reliant on government propaganda. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly sent text messages to citizens claiming “the management of the Strait of Hormuz has exceptionally elevated Iran’s ability to influence global economic calculations” and framing the conflict as a “victorious battle” that is almost won. In contrast, many residents reported that without external internet access, they are forced to “assume the opposite” of state media reports.
Conversely, the Trump administration has faced scrutiny for releasing stylised military videos of the conflict. Critics argue these presentations, occasionally interspersed with video game-style graphics reminiscent of “Call of Duty,” risk glorifying the war while ignoring mounting civilian casualties.
In Washington, the Republican-led Congress is facing calls for transparency. A key Senate chairman is reportedly planning the first public oversight hearing of the war to question top Department of Defence officials on the conflict’s trajectory.
Resource Scarcity and Austerity
The conflict is reshaping daily life far beyond the combat zone. In South Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh have implemented extreme energy austerity measures, including school closures and restrictions on air conditioning. Even in Europe, nations like Greece have seen thousands march on the US embassy in Athens to protest the military mobilisation.
As the conflict completes its second full week, the humanitarian toll continues to rise, marking a grim 14-day milestone with nearly 2,000 deaths reported by authorities in Iran and Lebanon. The scale of displacement has reached staggering levels. The UN refugee agency estimates that 3.2 million people have been uprooted in Iran alone. The crisis in Lebanon is becoming particularly acute as mass evacuation orders threaten to push the number of displaced persons there to over 1 million in the coming days. These figures underscore the mounting cost of a war that has already claimed the lives of two academics at a Lebanese university and left three Red Crescent aid workers wounded in Iran. With Tehran threatening to set the region’s energy infrastructure “on fire” if targeted further, the international community remains on high alert for a total collapse of regional stability.
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