The Executive Director of Sanity Africa Poll, Nathaniel Alpha, has shared insights on how his outfit accurately predicted a win for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the recent Akwatia by-election.
Mr. Alpha said their prediction was based on a careful study of voter perception, the political climate, and the candidates presented by both major parties.
On why the NDC was likely to win, he explained that voters were more concerned about development and the credibility of candidates.
“We looked at the perception of voters and what they wanted to achieve in their constituency. The voters also considered the times they find themselves in and the capacity of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate to deliver development. If you look at the NDC, they went through a process to elect their candidate for the by-election,” he explained.
On the NPP’s choice of candidate, Mr. Alpha suggested that the NPP’s strategy of choosing a so-called “popular candidate” did not yield the expected results.
“The New Patriotic Party more or less decided to settle on what they termed a popular candidate for the contest. Eventually, the numbers showed that it wasn’t the best idea they could have pursued.”
He highlighted the consistency of their research approach, noting that they remained engaged with voters throughout the election period.
“For us, we continued to engage with voters. We continued to conduct our opinion polls as expected of researchers, and we put out our data as and when we got them,” he added.
On the difference between their poll and Global Info Analytics, Mr. Alpha said differences in prediction margins were due to factors such as sample size and last-minute political activities by both parties.
“We predicted 52.3% with a margin of plus or minus 3. Two days before the election, we saw an uptick in political operations by both parties compared to Musa Danquah’s projections.”
He added, “We used a very small sample size, which is always a point of contention among pollsters regarding accuracy. But the key issue for us was our ability to call the election for the NDC candidate, and that is what mattered.”
On lessons for the NPP after two losses, Mr. Alpha urged the governing party to reflect deeply after losing both the Ablekuma and Akwatia by-elections.
“The first point of contact for the party is reflection. They must admit that these are not normal times, that they are not in the best of places. They must take polling results and analysis in good faith, reach out to their base, and understand why they react to certain issues and vote in different directions. Musa Danquah’s exit poll showed a huge number of voters were NPP supporters.”
He said the NPP must come to terms with how Ghanaians currently perceive them and adjust their approach if they want to regain trust.
“When you look at the final polling results declared by the EC, there is some variance compared to what exit polls showed. The party must start from reflection, admit that the current systems and perceptions about them are not the best, and change the way they conduct themselves. When they reach that point, they will clearly see what is wrong and the decisions they must take for the betterment of the party.”
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