Fitch Solutions is forecasting that inflation will cool from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 17.2% in 2025.
According to the UK-based firm, this will ease pressure on household budgets and supporting consumer spending.
Fitch Ratings, however, predicted an average inflation of 15% in 2025.
Fitch Solutions said that high-frequency indicators reinforce its outlook for robust consumer spending.
The Bank of Ghana (BoG)’s Consumer Confidence Index reached 103.6 in April—substantially above the 87.7 recorded a year earlier—reflecting improved sentiment about personal finances and pointing to increased consumer spending ahead.
Furthermore, mobile money transactions (a key indicator of consumer activity) have also gained momentum since February, accelerating to 23.5% year-on-year in April 2024.
It added that the high interest rates will slow the recovery of fixed investment.
“The BoG under new Governor Johnson Asiama, surprised markets with a 100-basis point hike in March [2025], raising the policy rate to 28.00%, and held rates steady in May. While we expect the BoG to begin easing in September, the current tight monetary stance will continue to suppress borrowing and delay corporate investment plan”, it mentioned.
Real credit growth rose just 4.8% year-on-year over January-February 2025, a subdued rebound given the favourable base effect from last year’s sharp 20.4% contraction over the same period.
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