Standard Bank projects GDP to hit 5.4%

Ghana’s economy is projected to experience sustained growth in 2025, with GDP projected to expand by 5.4% year-on-year, according to insights shared by the Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank Group, Jibran Qureishi.

Speaking at the Stanbic Economic Series webinar themed “The Economy Under a New Era,” he highlighted the factors driving this optimistic outlook.

According to him, “Ghana’s GDP growth has shown remarkable resilience, reaching 5.8% y/y in 2024, up from 2.9% y/y in 2023.

“This is the fastest growth the economy has achieved since 2021, and we expect this momentum to continue, with growth projected at 5.4% y/y in 2025 and 5.7% y/y in 2026.”

He identified the mining sector, particularly gold, to remain a key driver of this growth.

The Head of Research emphasized the significant role of the mining sector in Ghana’s economic recovery.

“There has been a notable pickup in mining activities across the country, with gold leading the charge.

“Additionally, the revival of underperforming mines, such as Obuasi, and the anticipated launch of a large lithium facility around 2026/2027, are expected to further bolster growth,” he explained. 

However, Mr. Qureishi also noted challenges in other sectors.

“While mining is thriving, non-mineral sectors like manufacturing and real estate continue to face headwinds.

“Agriculture productivity was also impacted by the dry spell in Northern Ghana last year, which weighed down growth in that sector,” he said. 

Despite these challenges, Mr. Qureishi expressed confidence in Ghana’s economic trajectory.

“The revival of key mining operations and the potential for higher-than-expected growth in 2026 underscore the resilience of Ghana’s economy.

“However, it is crucial to address issues, such as arrears in the energy sector and fiscal policy imbalances, to sustain this growth momentum,” he cautioned. 

On the currency front, Mr Qureishi projected a weakening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar, potentially reaching GH¢16.4 to US$1.

He highlighted structural concerns regarding foreign exchange (FX) flows, noting that mining and cocoa revenues, which are the largest sources of FX, are directed to the Bank of Ghana rather than the interbank market.

“This reliance on the central bank to manage FX flows and clear dollar backlogs underscores the need for prudent economic management,” he said.

Nonetheless, Mr. Qureishi remained optimistic with the economic prospects of the country highlighting the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability.

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